An Odd Sense of Familiarity, Dogecoin Speculation

Dogecoin has become an interesting microcosm of cryptocurrency market development, and has proudly become one of the first coin markets ‘independent’ of Bitcoin. To clarify, by independent I mean Dogecoin seems to have evolved in such a way that it doesn’t follow Bitcoin’s market movements in the same way currencies like Litecoin, or Namecoin do.

An interesting phenomena though is how Dogecoin seems to be showing the same developmental explosion as Bitcoin did in November 2013, except Dogecoin seems to be following the steps at nearly ten times the pace.

Dogecoin 1h Timescale
Bitcoin 1w Timescale

With very little background in technical analysis one can see the similar ‘bubble formation’ however as addressed in another article, ‘bubble formation’ doesn’t always mean its a bubble. This is just a movement characteristic of a previously undiscovered market.

So does this mean Dogecoin will go the way of Bitcoin?

Not at all actually. For those of you following my monthly speculation articles you’ll recall I described the post November growth period as a ‘sensitive’ period in Bitcoins history. Making the point that without the right developments and mix of positive media Bitcoin will (and did) crash. Shortly after this period, in a strange flurry of events that almost seemed like a concerted attack on Bitcoin the markets crashed.

Dogecoin is in the same ‘sensitive’ period, and there seems to be much more reason to be optimistic that Dogecoin will pull through. In our Dogecoin vs Litecoin we mentioned how Dogecoin has grown into something unexpectedly great because of its community. Dogecoin users are the best tippers, most active community (when taking into account proportional size), and have overall presented a coin even the least tech-savy can access. It is for these reasons I believe Dogecoin will rally where Bitcoin previously stumbled.

Back to the Technicals.

Unfortunately, I haven’t found a great way to provide readers with the quality of graphs we normally provide so most of what I tell you I can’t really show you.

Dogecoins major area of support seems to be around the 200 Satoshi and I doubt we will see it fall through this support anytime soon. That being said, those looking to swing trade should look to scoop up an entry between 205 and 220. Looking further into the month StochRSI cycles seem to be leading us into an upward ‘stair stepper’ pattern in the short term, with markets carefully reaching slightly higher plateaus. However, a careful trader never plans trades around new highs. This being said a good take profit point for the month would be around 257 Satoshi.

Good luck, and good work to the whole Dogecoin community! It’s been a pleasure to watch this market evolve into something truly unique.

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