I Doubt It
The month of December is proving to be a rough time for Bitcoin. Relative to historical growth, Bitcoin is still on the up-and-up– but it does appear that the cryptocurrency titan is now decelerating. I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. I’ve been spamming in Wallstreetcrypto” IRC channel for the last three weeks about rough tides in December, and I think the worse is yet to come. Looking at the one day interval on Bitcoinwisdom charts Bitcoin seems to be losing momentum.
That is, its rate of acceleration is decelerating (nods to all you calculus students out there). In regular markets this is pretty typical “end of cycle” behavior. The markets swing up, lose momentum, and swing down for a little bit, but for Bitcoin, the effects may be a bit more dramatic. Anyone who’s ever traded on traditional forex markets knows cryptocurrency is like bipolar forex on steroids; when it swings, it really, really swings. In a regular market I would advise traders to position themselves carefully and prepare for turbulence, but for Bitcoin, I’m feeling a little differently.
Run for the hills, sell the curtains, sell the kids, the big one’s comin’!!! Don’t get me wrong, I’m not one of those Bitcoin doomsayers preaching the end of digital currency as we know it, but I do believe end of December or early January we may see the biggest crash to date. General fear that any day could be the end of cryptocurrency makes traders panicky in down markets, and this sentiment amplifies regular market capitulations. Bitcoin is due for a big one, a real big one, just a bump on the road to changing the way the world views currency.
So what is my advice?
As always: sell high, and buy low. Position your portfolio to minimize risk end of December, and don’t reenter till your sure we’ve hit the bottom. Fibonacci retracement, and golden ratio based EMAs seem to indicate we might hit rock bottom between upper 200’s and mid 300’s on the US Dollar market. Historically, these indicators have been extremely reliable for me with around +/-5% accuracy on short intervals and +/-15% accuracy on long intervals.